Friday, 24 February 2017

Chronically low volatility

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +1pt at 2363 (intra high 2368). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -0.3% at 11.71. Near term outlook is bullish into early March, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s are well within range.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was another day for the equity bulls, as despite some notable weakness in the Trans and R2K, the Dow and sp'500 broke new historic highs. For now, there is still zero reason to expect any threat of a short term top until the latter half of next week.. aka... March!
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No teens this month

As things are, we've still not even seen the low teens this month. The last time that happened was June 2014.

VIX, monthly


For the moment, there is absolutely zero sign of the post election equity hyper-ramp maxing out. By default.. until the market stops going up, the VIX is going to remain extremely subdued.

Goodnight from London

Thursday, 23 February 2017

Equity bears remain powerless

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts at 2362. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 11.74. Near term outlook offers little to the equity bears, as the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s look due in early March.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a pretty dull day in the market. The open was a little weak, but as has been the case for almost four months, the equity bears can't muster anything significant. The Dow did break another new historic high... settling fractionally higher for a ninth consecutive day.. equalling the run from last July.

VIX naturally remains very subdued in the sub-teens. Another foray to single digit VIX seems probable.

Goodnight from London

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Half a decade

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +14pts @ 2365. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled +0.7% at 11.57. Near term outlook offers a touch of chop, but the sp'2400s and Dow 21000s appear due into early March. The US - and most other world markets, remain 'scary strong'.




sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The short week began as last week ended... on a bullish note. There is little else to add, that I didn't already outline in the weekend post.
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Five years old

Its now half a decade since I started regular online postings about the world's most twisted casino.

As well as Flamingo, MM, and a wheel barrow of others who prefer emails, I do also want to thank a few of those people who first linked back to me in 2012, not least Chartrambler, Joe McVerry, and the now elusive 'Albertarocks'. There are others, some of whom are still listed within my blog links lists.

Things have greatly changed here of course, since I took my intraday posting to a subscription basis last May. To my mini legion of paying subscribers/supporters, I owe a great deal. That has been ticking along okay, and I'm still kinda surprised I finally got around to taking that very big personal leap.

I intend to eventually 're-brand' both my public and private sites to something that better describes me. For the moment, the increasingly aged and quirky online moniker of 'Permabear Doomster' still lives... but it won't be around forever. 
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In other news...

The overly loud Mr C. has finally offered an ES target of 2650-2727 to be seen before year end. Interestingly, my own target of 2683 is right in the centre of that.



I continue to recognise that some of you get real pissy when I highlight anything from Oscar, but he has been posting on youtube for over a decade, and you have to respect him for at least that much.

Goodnight from London