Friday, 20 January 2017

Awaiting President Trump

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -8pts @ 2263. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +2.4% @ 12.78. Near term outlook offers further chop into the weekend. More broadly, Dow 20k and the sp'2300s remain due before end month.


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VIX'daily3



Summary

It was yet another day of chop for US equities. Indeed, we're now in week 6 since the market hit sp'2277 on Dec'13th.

Market volatility is itself naturally very subdued, with today seeing just a brief foray into the low 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid/late February. It has to be asked, would a 4-5% equity correction even be enough to see VIX spike to 20?
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As for Trump...

Screenie.. via Youtube - RSBN

I recognise that whilst half of the US populace are excited for the inauguration, around half of America are dreading tomorrow. To me, there is a gross ignorance in the liberal/democrat community of what Trump is actually about.

Frankly, I am not remotely inclined to try to summarise anything about what is likely ahead, as Trump has already laid it out many times.. across a few hundred rallies/events.

Yours truly - who saw the Trump victory coming... a long... long time ago, is most certainly looking forward to tomorrow. Things are about to get real interesting :)
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Goodnight from an icy... but sunny London

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Tedious chop

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2271. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.4%. VIX settled +5.1% @ 12.48. Near term outlook is for further moderate swings into the weekend. Broadly, Dow 20k and sp'2300s remain on the menu.


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Summary

*DELAYED post.. as my internet dropped for 11hours. Even in the city of London.... it happens!
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It was an outright tedious day in US equity land. Sure, there were a fair few individual movers - not least due to earnings. The broader market though, its just in moderate chop mode.

With the inauguration this Friday afternoon, there is little reason to expect the market to swing significantly from current levels. As noted yesterday... the market is arguably just consolidating in time... rather than price. On balance, I'm still looking for another wave higher.. before opportunity of a correction in Feb/March.

As for VIX... nothing to be noted.. other than the low teens still remain out of reach.
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Here in the metropolis...


... and its notable, even in my more suburban part of the city... cranes are strewn across the horizon. I've not looked at any of the UK building stocks (ironically.. I only follow US companies these days), but they must all be at record highs. So much for the post BREXIT recession... another failed BoE prediction. Yes.. the UK has not left the EU... but the BoE - along with most others, expected the UK to be in recession shortly after any 'leave' vote.

Goodnight from London

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Moderate weakness

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -6pts @ 2267 (intra low 2262). The two leaders - trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -1.4% respectively. VIX settled +5.7% @ 11.87. Near term outlook still offers Dow 20k, as broader price action remains strong, as reflected in a subdued VIX.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the short week on a broadly weak note, especially for the two leaders - Trans/R2K. Broadly though, the market has been stuck since mid December. Arguably, ongoing price action is just consolidation in time... rather than price. Further, has everyone already forgot that the Nasdaq comp' traded at a new historic high just last Friday?

VIX opened to 12.75 in the opening 30mins, but even the low teens are still out of range. The US capital markets are super comfortable... as the US is set to see Trump take control.

Goodnight from London