Friday, 25 May 2018

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -6pts (0.2%) at 2721. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +5.5% at 13.22. Near term outlook still threatens a mini washout to the sp'2670s, before resuming upward into the 2800s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and saw a day comprised almost entirely of minor chop. Prices did lean on the weaker side, as there was an element of 'rats selling into the long weekend'.  

Volatility remained broadly subdued, with the VIX settling moderately higher in the low 13s. Near term outlook still threatens a mini washout to the sp'2670s - which would likely equate to VIX 16/17s, but the 2800s still look due in June, as the bullish train remains on the tracks.
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Bonus chart: Greece, monthly


The Athex is currently net lower by a very powerful -11.9% to 755. We have a break of the m/t rising trend from early 2016. Increasing tensions with neighbouring Turkey are one bearish pressure for what remains the economic basket-case of the EU.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 24 May 2018

Bad News Thursday

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 2727 (intra low 2707). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settling +1.2% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -0.4% at 12.53. Near term outlook still threatens a mini washout to the sp'2670s, but that would be dropped on a break >2742.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little lower, saw an early minor bounce, but then news that Trump cancelled the June summit with North Korea, saw the market spiral lower.

Sad.

However, the bad news only spooked the sp'500 to 2707, with yet another subsequent latter day recovery, to settle -0.2% at 2727. Today was day'9 of a tight trading range of 2742/01. Until we break >2742, I'm still a little suspicious the market might want to washout to the 2670s.

Volatility saw a morning high of 14.24, but then cooled for the rest of the day, even settling fractionally lower in the mid 12s.
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 23 May 2018

The chop continues

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2733 (intra low 2709). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -4.8% at 12.58. Near term outlook threatens a brief washout to the sp'2670s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities saw yet another day of moderate chop, seeing a low of 2709, but then a latter day recovery to turn fractionally higher. Its notable that today was day eight, within what is a pretty tight trading range of 2742/01.

Volatility naturally jumped in early trading (intra high 14.60), but then cooled into the late afternoon, settling moderately lower in the mid 12s.
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Goodnight from London
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