Wednesday 25 April 2012

Daily Cycle Update

The daily cycles are turning back upward, the bulls do not yet have a conclusive break higher, but they are certainly still in control.  Bears remain in real trouble, and the VIX displays no sign of near term trouble.


IWM (representing rus'2000), daily


Dow



Nasdaq Comp




Sp' daily, bearish scenario (count'3)



VIX, daily



Summary

IWM brushed the 50day MA today. with a marginal fail, but nothing remotely bearish yet. The Dow is now back above the level of what was the bear flag - and is now positive cycle on the MACD. The NASDAQ comp' is of course leading the way - primarily due to AAPL. The Sp' had a similarly strong day, and is arguably at the very top of what could yet be a right shoulder.

The VIX closed very weak, it couldn't even hold the 17s, a Thursday morning touch of the 16.00 level looks very likely.

More a little later this evening, including a new monthly outlook, which links with the Sp' count'3 chart listed above.