Thursday 5 April 2012

Dollar - bouncing on the rising channel

The Dollar is suggestive of a new up-cycle . a potentially major one.

UUP - non-leveraged $ ETF, weekly cycle


Looks pretty bullish, from a cycle point of view, we are only 1-2 weeks away from going +cycle (MACD blue bar histogram), where a major snap move higher is viable*

*The weekly VIX chart is similarly suggestive of a possible snap higher move within the next 1-3 weeks.

So, the bears have both the $ and the VIX weekly cycles on their side, but they need follow through next week!


$ Implications, if the trend continues

Bearish on all commodities, especially the precious metals - causing SLV/GLD to snap much lower
Bearish on commodity related equities, in particular, the mining sector.
General downward pressure on the main market.

Good wishes for Thursday trading    (a day we need to treat as a Friday!)