Tuesday 17 April 2012

Oil - broad trends...mixed

Oil is still holding up very well, despite Japan, and much of Europe now back in recession.

WTIC, weekly


The weekly cycle still has a clear bull flag, although the various indicators have all started to rollover..near term..IS showing a little weakness.


WTIC, monthly


From a monthly cycle, Oil is looking like it could easily rollover, but as yet..there is still most definitely NO confirmed turn lower.

There remains a lot of talk on the clown channels about some pipeline that will supposedly do 'something' good - yes, I'm fuzzy on exactly what it is the actual effects will be, but, considering the broader macro-economic background...I'm inclined to be bearish on Oil.

There seems no point in shorting Oil via any of the usual ETfs yet, since we are still to have even the slightest of initial sell signals. As it is, baring an 'Iran/Middle Eastern' event..the notion of Oil returning to test its 2008 peak of $147 now looks out of range.