The SPY/VIX ratio, via a 'Zig-Zag, new methodology' style chart. It makes use of the Elder Impulse candle type - red, green, or blue. We have 3 charts to take a look at...
SPY/VIX, weekly, 10yr historic
The grand overview certainly puts things into perspective. Interestingly, you can see the clear 2007 peak (this chart peaked a few months before prices peaked)..a brief fake-out spike in May 2008, and then the collapse wave during the Lehman implosion.
The key aspect is that we do appear to have a reasonable H/S formation right now. Yes, its lopsided, with the RS higher than the Head, but that can be acceptable to some extent - we've been in a very general up trend after all.
SPY/VIX, weekly, 3yr
On a 3 year chart, the H/S formation does look not so good. However, if the ratio moves down to the 5.0 level in the coming weeks, then it'd probably be confirming the H/S formation. A move down to 2.5 at some point this year would then seem very probable.
SPY/VIX, weekly, 1yr
We have our first red candle this past week, the first since last Novembers pullback. Note the Full Sto' indicator, the bears will need to see it break <50 this coming week, and then punch fast down to under 20. If that is the case, then there is the real possibility of Sp'1150 in the coming months.
Special note
I'm not entirely comfortable with these charts, after all, they are ratio charts and such charts certainly do not always reflect changes in price or even the correct direction in trend at any given time.
However, I think they are worth bringing up again, and are something to provoke a few thoughts, and thats always a good thing I believe.
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More later this weekend, especially focusing on the weekly/monthly index charts..