Tuesday 1 May 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

We saw a moderately lower close on Monday for the main indexes. We have a busy week ahead, there is key econ-data every day. Tuesday will see ISM manufacturing data (10am), will that disappoint as did the Chicago PMI today?


Sp' daily, bullish



Sp' daily, bearish



Transport, daily, rainbow


Summary

The bulls are still in control of course. From a daily cycle perspective, the 10MA of 1386 will act as the first line of support tomorrow. We saw a bullish cross today, with the 10MA crossing back over the 50 day.

The bears are still desperately hoping this is one giant H/S formation, with the (pink) bear flag as the RS. Only a break under the recent low of sp'1357 will give a preliminary confirmation. Arguably, the bears need a break of 1340 and then1300 to confirm the bigger bearish theory.

Finally, all but one of the 'rainbow' charts remain bullish. However - and most interesting of all, the Transports put in a sell signal today (at least via the Elder Impulse chart-style). Keep in mind the weekly and monthly cycle for the transports, the direction in which the 'tranny' goes..will most likely be the one in which the main market eventually follows.