Friday 11 May 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Well, overnight futures got down to within 1pt of the recent sp'1343 low. As I type, futures are 5pts higher from that low...and we are due to open marginally lower around sp'1352/54.

Things to look for in the opening 10/30 minutes!

VIX'15/60min cycle - black candles - indicating a failed opening gap
Red hollow reversal candles on the indexes, especially IWM, which often leads the market.


VIX'60min - note those black candles often marking tops!



Sp'60min 

If we did indeed see the A' wave peak yesterday, then we are most certainly due to see B' wave floor - most likely early this morning. I'd still guess C' wave UP does not complete until Monday afternoon at the earliest.

I suppose its possible we won't even get past 1370. C' wave by definition only have to pass the A' wave peak of 1365.88. However, the 50% fib is 1379/80, and it feels like the indexes will be drawn to that SEVERE resistance zone..before the monster wave begins.

*note the dashed grey line on the chart, which by Monday will be a reinforced-concrete wall at the 1380 level.
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So..we have a long day ahead.

As it is, I am looking to go long, once I see the 15min cycle level out. Further, if I do see a black candle on the VIX 60min chart at 10am (I'll sure post it up!)..then I'd believe that it is a good sign the market has floored..and UP we shall go.

'Serious money' long-stops would of course be around 1343 or so. Right now I don't believe we'll go much below 1352/50.

Good wishes for Friday trading....its almost time for the weekend!