Friday 25 May 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning! Overnight Futures have been moderately choppy, we've swung from -0.4% to +0.4%, now we're about flat. European markets are mixed.

The only econ-data today is Consumer Sentiment at 9.55am. Market is expecting 77.8 - another post 2008 high. Clearly, everything is okay!


Sp'60min


VIX'60min



Sp'daily - simple version






Summary


As I noted in the daily cycle update last evening, we do have bear flags on all the index charts. It remains entirely possible we'll break below the recent 1292 low next week and at least move to 1280, maybe even as low as 1260/50. I certainly don't expect 1100s in this current cycle though.  On any basis, we're highly likely to bounce
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The hourly cycle remains a mess, yesterdays last hour mini ramp really ruined what was turning out to be a reasonably bearish rollover. One thing to watch for this morning is the VIX. A break under 20 would be pretty bullish, and suggest sp'1330 is viable for todays close.

*Its a Friday that is leading into a 3 day holiday weekend, so I'm really not expecting too much action today. For most, probably better to just turn the screen off! Unless we get some news/rumour this morning, today will be a quiet one.

Good wishes for the extended weekend !