Monday 21 May 2012

VIX - market volatility turning lower

With the market seemingly having floored around the secondary support of sp'1292, the VIX is now getting smashed lower - losing 12% today. Lets look at those VIX charts!


VIX'60min



VIX, daily, bullish outlook




VIX, daily, bearish outlook



VIX, weekly


Summary

The 60min cycle remains in the broad up trend, market index-bulls will need to see VIX break under 22 by the Wednesday close - which seems very likely. It has been especially pleasing to see the VIX get into the target yellow box/zone.

The two daily charts I believe are a fairly good balance between what appears to be a general summer decline for the market indexes..and yet what is a very likely near term pull back for the VIX. Whether the market can briefly make new highs in June/July, we'll just have to wait and see of course.

Regardless, the VIX weekly cycle is now looking toppy, and is possibly going to retrace lower for 4-6 weeks. Market bulls will wish to see the VIX close this week under the 10MA of 18.65.