Wednesday 13 June 2012

2pm update - the moon rocket malfunction zone

The bull maniacs will again be emboldened by this mornings reversal. Even though in the background the Greek election bomb ticks ever closer to zero, the market seems very content to ignore this critical event, at least for another trading day.

Primary target remains sp'1350/60. However, if we get stuck around the 1340/45 zone tomorrow, I will sure be tempted to launch a major re-short.


sp' daily, Fib levels



sp'60min



Summary

The current moon-rocket is set to suffer a malfunction real soon. The two fib levels - covering the wave'1 down, of 50% and 61.8% retracement - sp'1344/63 add some extra natural resistance to what is probably the final C' wave of this wave'2 UP.

So, tomorrow, if we get stuck around 1345 - on any gap open - and then I start seeing black fail candles on IWM, with hollow red reversal candles on the VIX, I'm probably going to short this market.

There is of course a risk the market will decide to 'like' the Greek results, and the danger of a final move to 1370/80 next week - not least if the Fed decides to take the minor action of extending QE-twist.

A close around 1335 is still just about viable with two hours still to go.

More later!