Friday 1 June 2012

Daily Index Cycle Update - bearish!

Despite a crate of lousy econ-data this morning, the market still managed a latter day recovery, but closed marginally red - with the VIX closing flat in AH.

However you might like to count the waves, what IS clear is that we have a giant bear flag on the daily indexes...and the trend is warning of major downside in the coming days.


IWM, bearish outlook



Dow, daily



SP, daily, bearish outlook, count'2



Transports



Summary

The transports was the first to break the daily bear flag, the Dow did that today, the Sp/IWM were borderline breaks.

I remain bearish, and am holding short into Friday, and probably into next week.
--

How low do we go ?

I've not read around too much lately, but what I have seen are other chartists with targets in the 1280/70 range...and as low as 1225/00. Those make sense to me, and indeed, when we are at the 1280/70 zone, it will be interesting to see if the market can keep pushing lower.

Right now, I just don't know how low we might go. The monthly charts suggest much lower levels of sp'1100, but that might not be for a few months.

More later, with a very important chart coming to close the day!