Thursday 12 July 2012

1pm update - Mr Market still..fearless

Even though the market declined reasonably this morning - and indeed broke the uptrend on the daily index cycles, the VIX is still not able to hold onto any significant gains.

VIX is only marginally higher right now, +3/4%, in the mid 18s. This is NOT good confirmation for the bears


vix'daily


The downtrend was broken this morning, but that black candle sure ain't a great sign! Bears need to see those earlier gains of 9% reclaimed!


Sp'60min


Sp'daily5


Summary

Daily index cycles are clearly under the broad uptrend..so new highs are not written off in my view. However, we could still bounce higher from here...a fair bit. I sure wasn't going to chase it lower from 1325 this morning, and right now, I'm going to wait some more.

Lets see how high the maniacs want to kick this market up.

Look at the MACD cycle on the 60min chart, we could go positive cycle near the end of today, a close over 1340 is viable.