Tuesday 17 July 2012

3pm update - closing hour boredom?

Afternoon gains are holding up very well for the bulls. Doubtless, many will be touting new index highs >1422 again. 1422 sure ain't far away, a mere 4%, but its 4% too far.

The daily cycle is looking good..check the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle...


sp, daily


Summary

We are putting in the third tower of this up cycle since the 1266 low. A triple up cycle is pretty much the most the bull maniacs could have hoped for. No way can I envisage a fourth wave higher next week.

I'm certainly open to the notion that I might short tomorrow at 1365/70.and we still briefly hit 1385/90...but I would not be concerned. The risk/reward at current levels is very good.

Clearly, the big money bears can short ALL they like, with good short-stops anywhere from a tight 1375, to loose 1390..or even 1423.
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So, I'm going to wait until tomorrow. One more little block on the MACD cycle...that should be enough to complete this wave. 

More after the close