Thursday 12 July 2012

3pm update - closing hour gains?

The bulls have already achieved a sizeable recovery, and if we start to slip back to the low 1330s, they still can't complain. With the VIX set to go red by the close...this is very likely a turn day.

Hard to guess if we close marginally green on some indexes - the 15min cycle is pretty high, so it would be kinda easy is we slip lower. Regardless, we are a long way up from the 1325 this morning!


sp'60min



vix'daily


Looks like a failed breakout, the black candle is a clear warning of VIX downside Friday. The black 'doom' candles don't always work out, but more often that not.


sp'daily5


Summary

I remain on the sidelines. I sure ain't hitting buttons to go long, and with the hourly MACD cycle suggestive of going +cycle this closing hour....I can't be short either.

Actually, today is arguably a victory for both sides. Bulls saw a sizeable bounce - with the hope of a multi-day rally back to the 1350/60s...and bears saw the primary up trend/channel of wave'2 broken.

As it is, I don't expect to re-short now until next Mon/Tuesday.  The one upside of not trading...the guarantee that I'm not going to lose money!

More after the close