Friday 13 July 2012

Daily Index Cycle update - primary up trend busted

A very mixed day for both bulls and bears, both camps can take away something positive from today's action. Bulls saw a reasonable recovery from the sp'1325 lows, whilst bears did break the primary up trend and also broke under 1330..briefly.


IWM, daily


NYSE, composite



Sp



Transports


Summary

All the indexes punctured through the broad up trend today. The exception was the Rus'2000 (often the weird exception!), which did see a bounce off the lower channel.

As seen most clearly on the sp'500 chart, I'm now seeking a micro-wave'2 - that forms part of bigger wave'3. This could take us to 1350/60 by next Tuesday.

To be clear, I do not expect the recent high of sp'1374 to be exceeded. My best guess is that was the top of wave'2, and bears should merely look for a lower high next week - via the daily charts.
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I currently remain on the sidelines..and look to re-short next Tuesday, ahead of the Bernanke who speaks next Wednesday morning.

A little more later.