Friday 3 August 2012

3pm update - another failed week..and summer

Bears failed this week. Arguably, it might be even be the worse fail since phase'1 of the rally of delusion started in Spring 2009.

Not only did the Fed disappoint, but so did the ECB, and yet here we are, with the indexes ramping hard into the weekend, and a VIX which has been smashed back into the mid teens.

There are still a few 'still bearish' aspects out there now, but its not enough to be even remotely confident anymore about the bigger picture.

Worse of all, the SP' monthly cycle is now outright bullish.


Sp'monthly, rainbow


Summary

The above chart says it all. We closed July with a neutral candle - after those minor Tuesday declines, yet here we are, and we're now officially getting a bullish candle.

Sure, we could still somehow magically close August much lower, but right now. ANY bear out there has to admit...

The most important market cycle of all, for one of the two leading indexes is now bullish.

A little more after the close.