Friday 10 August 2012

Volatility falls even lower

With the indexes remaining in a very tight range, the VIX continues to weaken. With a quiet weekend ahead, the VIX suffered most of its 3.5% declines in the closing hour.

Mr Market has no fear of possible 'events' over the weekend anymore.


VIX'60min



VIX, daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

The close of 14.74 is truly remarkable. Even a multi-day jump of 35% would barely get the VIX back to the 20 level.

The VIX weekly chart is offering a very nice descending wedge, which would normally be expected to break to the upside. Yet, how high will the next up cycle go? A mere 20..or 25?

Those who are still super bearish on a multi-month basis, looking for Sp' in the low 1200s by late Autumn are getting a great opportunity to load up on VIX option calls. Although, since it seems likely we won't start seeing any major declines until September, its arguably better to wait a further 2 or 3 weeks - due to the inherent decay in such time ticking derivatives.

More across the evening