Friday 31 August 2012

Volatility a touch lower

The VIX actually had a pretty flat day, which was surprising considering the moves/direction of the main indexes today.

Arguably, the most bearish chart of the week, the VIX weekly cycle, where we have a confirmed close outside of a giant wedge. Immediate upside target is 21, sometime next week.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily



VIX'weekly


Summary

Considering the indexes were dow +120pts earlier today, the VIX held together pretty well, Also, the fact that the uncertainly inherent about Jackson Hole is also out of the way, the VIX did hold up well indeed!

The hourly and daily cycles show a nice near term up trend that is still broadly continuing.

However, most important of all, the weekly cycle did get the confirmation I was seeking last weekend. We have another tick higher on the MACD cycle, and we are set to go positive cycle at the Tuesday open.

The weekly VIX cycle is warning of index declines next week. Sp'1385/80 looks very viable next Tue/Wednesday.

More later