Saturday 8 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The broader market closed flat today, but some indexes still managed gains. The immediate trend remains upward, and it'd seem likely we'll see at least a further few days on the upside.

With the German constitutional court and FOMC decisions next week, it will be fascinating to see if these gains are quickly wiped away, or whether we'll be cruising higher all the way into spring 2013.


IWM



Nas



Dow



NYSE



SP, daily5



Transports


Summary

So, this was day'2 of yet another up cycle. Best guess remains we'll hit sp'1445 next week. I suppose a brief intra-day spike to 1450/60 is possible - 'if' the Fed initiates QE3, but I don't think so.

I will look to re-short at the top of this cycle, certainly no sooner than late Tuesday, and possibly as late as Thursday afternoon. It'd be a risky trade to short ahead of the German court decision, but its something I'm considering.

Yet there is certainly no rush to get back on board the bear train, not least whilst the weekly and monthly cycles are both outright bullish. For now, I'm glad to be a mere spectator into next week.

A little more later.