Tuesday 25 September 2012

Volatility jumps (finally!)

With the indexes losing around 1% today, the VIX responded in the late afternoon, closing around 9% higher in the mid 15s.

It has to be noted, a VIX under 20 remains largely unreliable, and the 'doomer bears' can't get guns blazing short..yet.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily


Summary

The one really bearish thing for tomorrow and the rest of this week, the VIX daily MACD cycle has a good few days of upside in it. There is no reason why we can't hit 16, and 17/18 remains viable by Friday.

VIX 18, would probably equate to sp'1420, and right now, that's where I'd guess this cycle concludes.

Those doomer bears looking for a 'collapse wave', need to see a lower high in the next index up cycle. So, we should look for the next high as anything sp<1474. That will be something I'll bring up again in the days ahead.

More later