Monday 10 September 2012

Volatility jumps higher, but still low

The VIX gained 13% today, but still resides in the lowly 16s. Its a long way up, just to get back to the big 20 level.
 

VIX'60min



VIX'daily



VIX'weekly


Summary

Today's VIX increase is interesting, but bears should not get even moderately excited yet. VIX'16 is not exactly a volatile market, and until we're over 20, bears should be very cautious.

The down channel on the hourly cycle is conclusively broken though. First support is the 10MA, which will be around 15.25 by the close of tomorrow.

The daily cycle would suggest 18.50 is possible later this week, which is around 15% higher.
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The bigger weekly cycle remains something of a mess. Last week closed with a giant bearish engulfing candle, today certainly helped to turn things around a bit, but until we break over 19..and arguably 20, the market remains largely fearless.

After all, since everything is fixed in the global economy, why worry?