Wednesday 10 October 2012

2pm update - 1430 tested, holding so far

A weak market, and we've just recently tested what is the important 1430 floor. Its natural for some kind of minor bounce, but I'd not expect it to hold.

One concern for the bears is the near mute VIX, which is flat. Maybe the cycle is just out of sync with the indexes, needs a little time to reset...or...the VIX is warning that the index floor is already likely in. I  hope its not the latter!


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

We are only day'3 on this down cycle for the SP', I think there is pretty good chance for at least one or two days lower.

Breaking 1430 will open up a test of the 50 day MA, and also the soft Fib' 23% level.


sp'Fib levels





The Fib' chart would be suggestive that if 1425 fails to hold, then a test of the recent cycle low of 1397 will be hit..perhaps even lower.


Regardless, I wanna bail by Friday! With opex next week, another stupid bounce can't be too far away.

back at 3pm