Thursday 25 October 2012

2pm update - afternoon chop

The earlier moderate declines are back to moderate gains as the bulls once again push. A close over 1420 would be a major defeat for the bears, so...its real important that we see another minor wave lower into the close.


sp'daily5



vix'60min


Summary

Interesting day so far, especially with the second failed opening rally in a row. Bulls are really struggling, despite the small rally in the past hour.

Key aspects for the bears to seek...

Dow <13k..with the 200day MA within reach.
SP <1397, that seems unlikely today, but viable at the Friday open.
VIX, a daily closing >20, again, unlikely today, but we could close the week >20, which would be my third 'red flag for the Autumn'.
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*big earnings at the close.

back at 3pm (probably)