Wednesday 24 October 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The broader market closed significantly lower, although the Rus'2000 saw only moderate declines, whilst the transports exists in a world of its own - climbing 0.8% The VIX confirmed the general index declines, and there is very likely to be further declines across the rest of this week.


IWM



Nasdaq



Dow



SP'daily5



Transports


Summary

Unquestionably, today was so very important. The closing hour Monday ramp was entirely negated, and we closed way below the 1420 target I was seeking. With the VIX almost hitting 20 earlier today, the market is actually starting to get really dynamic again. Finally, some price action!


other Key aspects of today..

-The Nas' comp closed <3k
-second major down day for many indexes, out of 3 sessions.


So, a good day for the bears, and certainly a relief after the closing hour nonsense of Monday. A gap lower sure makes things easier in many ways. I exited earlier, and sat out the rest of the day, looking for 1420/22..which never quite hit. The closing hour though sure looked weak, and so I was reasonably pleased to be back on the bear express train..destination sp'1395/1400, which might even be reached early tomorrow.

RE: Facebook (FB). The earnings were in line, and I will look to short that over-hyped nonsense in the coming few days. Fair value remains $4.
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*I am short, seeking my next exit around sp'1395/1400, with VIX 20/21. I expect this to be hit no later than Friday morning, but it could even be the Wednesday open.

A little more later.