WTIC, daily
WTIC, weekly
WTIC, monthly, rainbow
Summary
So, WTIC fails to hold the big $90 level - that I've felt for some weeks was important. First downside target is $80, and then the June low of $76.
If the broader market gets upset this Oct/November - with some serious concerns for early 2013, then my primary target of $60 is very viable. That of course seems a little like 'crazy talk' right now, but with the QE3 announcement out of the way, things are somewhat more clearer.
The deflationary doomers will be seeking a monthly close (see rainbow chart) under $70 early next year. As ever, it is all about which is the bigger force..the deflation..or the inflation. I'm still guessing that with the underlying economy showing very serious weakness (many national PMIs <50 - recessionary) and weak GDP Q2 numbers, that Oil prices will considerably weaken in the weeks and months ahead.
Of course, lower energy prices should be considered a bullish factor for the economy at some later date.
Two red flags, and seeking a third.
With the transports closing September <5000, we now have two red flags for the Autumn. My third remains a weekly closing for the VIX >20.
Today felt tiresome, with the broader market almost breaking above sp'1455. I remain short, and still (somewhat desperately), seeking an exit around 1420/15.
Goodnight from London