Wednesday 28 November 2012

10am update - very likely bounce due

Opening declines into the high 1380s, the next key resistance level will be the 200 day MA @ 1383. VIX is largely unfazed though, up a mere 4%


sp'60min



sp'daily5


Summary

We're very much due a bounce here. Despite opening declines, VIX is up a mere 4%.

I've adjusted the channel on the hourly chart a bit, I still think there is a chance this is merely a wave'4, or some type of bull flag.

However, I don't like this market at all, I remain on the sidelines. Lets see if we get the bounce as the day progresses.
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Metals remain under pressure, but they are currently showing hollow-red reversal candles. At this early stage of the day, such turn candles not always reliable.

GLD, daily



*Lunar Eclipse (with the appropriate full moon) today, the kooks will be...twitchy ;)
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10.05am update.. New Home sales disappoint, and market breaks a new low.

Well, its looking like the 200 day will be test in the next hour or two @ 1383.

If we trade into the 1370s..then..it could simply all fall to pieces into next week.
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UPDATE 10.30am. A possible flooring spike is being put in.





*yes, I've changed the count, maybe a simple ABC ?

The MACD hourly cycle is close to flooring on any basis.
Regardless, I'm still looking for 1425.   I can wait.