Friday 16 November 2012

2pm update - building gains

Mr Market has seen a little churn, but the recovery-gains are holding, and we'll surely build upon them. The near term outlook still looks like an ABC 'black wave 4' - as best seen on the hourly transports. However, it remains very possible we'll be trading <1343 before the thanksgiving holiday next Thursday.


Trans'60min



SP'daily5g


Summary

It has been especially pleasing to see the market behaving itself the last few weeks. The cycles look reasonably clear...almost 'natural'.


RE: the ABC wave.

Its pointless to try to guess where the A' wave will end, and play the B' wave.

Safe trade...wait for a pullback..and then a final lurch higher, with the C' wave...next Monday.
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It is feasible we'll see a big spooky scared market next Tue/Wed, and be trading in the sp'1330s.

So..I'm sitting it out until next Monday, and seeking a re-short around sp'1365/70

UPDATE 2.30pm

We're seeing a little wave lower, but I would be pretty stunned if we break the morning lows.


On the 15min chart, looks more like a bull flag than anything else.