Friday 30 November 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Its the last trading day of the week and the month. How we close today will be important in many respects, not least from a chartists perspective. Futures are showing slight gains, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1418, a mere 2pts from yesterday mornings peak.


sp'60min



sp'daily5


Summary

Indeed, an important day is ahead.

As someone who is generally more focused on the bigger trends, as I noted in my overnight post, what is VERY important for the bears today, is to see the indexes close the day flat...or preferably a little lower. That would ensure at least the monthly cycles remain with provisional warnings of trouble for December.
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One good aspect that IS already the case for the bears is that the hourly cycles are all primed for a considerable down cycle now.

I suppose we could still hit the 50 day MA this morning @ 1422...and see a reversal from there.  However, I absolutely do not want to see a daily close >1425, or worse 1430. That would be a major problem.

*we have two pieces of econ-data today.

Personal income/outlays, important for the macro-economists out there.

However, much more important to the market..Chicago PMI @ 9.45am. Market is expecting 50.3
So, bears should be seeking anything under the recessionary threshold of 50.0  Any reading <48, and Mr Market will likely use it as an excuse to sell off, testing the sp'1400 level again.
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back at 10am