Thursday 6 December 2012

12pm update - another twisted day in the US markets

The market remains on the edge of breaking out, although there is some distinct instability out there for those watching the tiny 5 and 1 minute charts. Bears need a close <1400, that would open a much anticipated gap lower into the 1380s, with VIX 19s.


sp'60min



vix'60min



Summary

Most notable today remains the Dollar, which is now up 0.5% - a pretty significant move in currency land. Metals are surprisingly green despite the $ move, although Oil is weak..-2%.

On balance, I think there is still some serious underlying downside building up, even though is appears we are back to short term up trend.

So, its a real mess in many respects.

As it is, I'm sticking to the original outlook, waiting to exit at the next major down wave in the sp'1380s, with the VIX in the 19s. That IS viable tomorrow.
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Ohh, and as for AAPL, it remains laughable.



The few minutes of clown channel  that I could stomach earlier, saw CNBC's Melissa Lee do her very best to again cheer lead the 'AAPL $1100 in 2013' mantra. Incredible.
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FCX - I never got to around to mentioning it yesterday, but here it is...


Its hit my secondary target zone, and although it might bounce a bit, I'm guessing 25/20 in 2013, along with the other miners (GDX 35/30).

FCX remains one my top 5 companies in the world (yes..world!), but for now, its probably one to watch.

UPDATE 12.30pm  I've adjusted the tranny 60min chart, I think its important update.


The big issue, and a CRITICAL one for the bears, is where we floor in the next down wave. If we put in a slightly higher low, it'd suggest we are just in the middle of creating a giant B' wave, with a C' into Christmas.

I could live with that..if I have to. As it is, I'm still seeking a move lower in the immediate term.

Tranny suggest we floor next Tuesday.