Friday 21 December 2012

Awaiting a Witchy OPEX

The following was drafted before the ES flash-crashed -50pts in earlier overnight futures trading. See previous post for updated daily chart/details on Friday outlook.

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Today saw yet another moderately higher close for the equity market, with some indexes putting in new post Dec FOMC highs. With just 5.5 trading days left of the year, there really isn't much time for the bears to knock lower this market, even to the low 1400s.


sp'daily3



sp'weekly



sp'monthly3, rainbow


Summary

The big monthly rainbow chart is now my primary concern. With today's gains, the Sp is back to an outright bullish green candle.

At the very least, the bears MUST close the year with a blue candle on the big monthly charts. We're only talking about 1-2% lower on the indexes. Yet, if Mr Market busts higher into the 1450/60s, it looks like we could close the year with very bullish monthly charts.


Quadruple Witching Friday

Tomorrow is the last big opex of the year, and we should in theory see a little higher trading volume, along with end of week positions being closed out. The issue I'm wondering is whether the market makers would like to whack the SPY - and other index ETFS down to the equivalent of sp'1420. 

Early this morning I had hopes we could perhaps close the week back at last Fridays closing level of sp'1413. That just seems out of range now, especially when you consider the hourly charts, where it will be very difficult to break rising support in the low 1420s.

*we have 3 key pieces of econ-data tomorrow, so the market will have plenty of excuses to see slightly more dynamic action than we saw today.

Well, its been a very long day...

BONUS video...

Queen cheer leader Maria, from clown network, having something of a melt down...




Goodnight from London