Friday 7 December 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are slightly lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open around 1409. We have the big monthly jobs data today, and a few other pieces of econ-data. The Dollar is up again this morning @ 80.50, a break into the 81s would put some serious downside pressure onto the market.

Update: Monthly jobs data: 146k, 7.7%  vs 80k, 8.0%, hmm, way above expectations, although earlier months were revised significantly lower.

*futures flip green, we're now sp+9pts, set to open @ 1422


spdaily5



sp'60min


Summary

I still think there is a fair chance we can close the week <sp'1400, that would open up a brief move down to the 1370s, before the FOMC next Wednesday.

*I've updated the daily chart, to highlight my current near term 'best guess'. I have the suspicion though that we simply won't be able to take out the sp'1343 low in this down cycle though.

We'll likely have to wait until after Christmas day.
--

Hopefully...today will be much kinder to the bears..with a clear downward direction, and open up much lower levels for early next week.

Good wishes for today everyone!
--

UPDATE 8.40am.. So...futures flipped to moderate gains, after data, that is frankly..even the cheer leaders on clown network don't quite understand.

7.7%, really? lol, talk about near worthless data.

According to the data, the US economy is almost at the boom levels of the mid 1980s again. Clearly, everything is fine again.

Futures seem to be levelling @ 0.5 gains, around sp 5/6pts...so..sp'1420 at the open.

Absolutely critical...the Monday spike high of sp'1423. If we break that, then...1430s..at least 'briefly'.

Dow..has broken above the recent high in pre-market...so far..other indexes still holding under their Monday spike highs.


SP' futures, set to open @ 1421, thats too close for comfort, and considering the Dow'...1423 looks set to also be broken through.

* the most disturbing thing about all of this.... we're just 3.5% from the index (mid-Sept) peak.