Wednesday, 21 March 2012

SP'500 - a trading sideways day

Nothing much happened today, come back tomorrow!

SP'60min cycle - largely flat

Bulls scored a minor victory in that we did close above the very important 1400 level. note the MACD cycle which although still negative is crawling back upward. Also useful to note, the RSI has now lost over half of its previously overbought problem.

The potential for a move high is increasing again.

More later in the evening :)

VIX - just not scared..yet

At some point the VIX is going to explode again. That seems unlikely for some days, if not at least 2-3 weeks.

VIX Daily....rainbow chart

Sure, the bears could argue its putting in a base, but the current action is ALL noise. There is no direction right now, its all boring noise.

No bear should take this nonsense seriously until we see a break back into the low 20s..and even then, it could easily be a cruel tease - if market cruises to 1550 by late summer.

*still holding LONG, via IWM calls, seeking IWM 86/87 / sp'1440 within the near term.

**ohh, and UVXY holders must be really getting mad now, even more annoyed than the TVIX holders, more on those two later this evening I think.

SP' Monthly - the RS 1440 level

Just a simple SP' monthly chart, but it is a good reminder of the next key level...1440.

The Right shoulder of the 2008 declining H/S formation is pretty much agreed by most chartists out there. Interestingly, it matches up with where the upper bol' line is right now.

If 1440 is broken above, then as noted recently, a move to test the all time high of 1576 would seemingly be likely - no matter how crazy that sounds, within the next 3-6 months.

1445/50 would certainly be a good stop-loss level for anyone with serious money going heavy-short.
*I remain long, via IWM calls, and am looking for an exit within the next 1-2 weeks, around sp'1435/40. I would then look to short, at the top of the next 60min cycle.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading.

Metals...weak weak..WEAK

Despite the underlying soundness of these commodities, and taking into account all physical demand/supply issues, the metals remain weak. In fact, there is a very real chance of a slaughter fest in the coming few weeks.

SLV, 2yr outlook

A move to as low as $20 seems very viable within the next few months.

GLD, 2yr outlook

Gold remains stronger relative to the more volatile Silver, but today's action was again indicative of underlying weakness. A further $50 fall, should open up gold to $1400..and that will likely lead to some kind of summer low around $1200.

Despite the likely coming fury of the metal-bugs, I'd suggest...(as ever)....any falls are to be taken as a bonus physical 'load the boat' buying opportunity.