Monday, 24 September 2012

Volatility a touch higher

A fractionally higher close for the VIX, and indeed the moves across the last 7 trading days have all been mere noise.


VIX, daily


The only bearish aspect right now is the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle that remains ticking higher, and is set to go positive cycle either tomorrow or early Wednesday.

Until VIX is back in the 20s, all daily opening gaps higher in the VIX are to be treated with great caution.

Near term 'best bear case' target is 16/18 later this week, with sp'1420, but that looks a stretch.

Closing Brief

A red close, but it is surely to be seen as another disappointing day for the bears. The declines are really small, and whilst the daily cycle is resetting itself from overbought, the bears just can't build any significant downside momentum.

The VIX confirms the complete lack of concern in the market about any potencial major moves.





First target remains a close under 1450, and a break under the recent low of 1440.

Its embaressing to note, that when all things considered, best 'bear case' looks to be around 1420.

3pm update - sigh.

Urghh, here we go again, indexes all flipping to green.



This is really starting to get tiresome again. With so little momentum to the downside, dow -50pts just can't be called anything other than mere noise, any minor up move kicks the day-trading bears out again.

Truly tiresome, and with the VIX now red, thats another day to be written off.

Back after the close.

2pm update - a close under 1450 ?

Not much happening, but we sure ain't going up right now.




Still a quiet day, but at least the MACD trend is still ticking lower.

Tuesday the cycle will go negative, and so I'm most definately seeking a move to at least test the 1440 level. A close in the 1430s tomorrow would be a real bonus to the bears tomorrow. We'll need to see VIX 16/17 for that though.

AAPL helping to drag down the tech', with the miners being a particularly damaged sector, GDX -3%

Ohh, and the FB, -9%, arguably breaking the bear flag on any basis, target remains 15, and then 12/10 by late November.

back at 3pm

12pm update - still weak

Another Monday of weakness, and even though the declines are very minor, its still something  that might set the tone for the week ahead...and the end of Q3 no less.

VIX is all noise, can't take any moves seriously until back over 16/18, and ultimately the big 20.

Lets have a look at things..rainbow style...

sp'daily, rainbow

vix, daily, rainbow


Certainly, its nothing for the bears to get excited over yet.

First target is 1440, which seems viable tomorrow, a fail of that level will open up 1420.

*as it is, if we can close the week <1440, that would actually break one of the up trends, so that would be something to aim for.
Time for lunch!

back at 2pm

10am update - moderate declines, set to build

Good morning. The daily and weekly cycles are all primed to see some sort of significant snap lower this week. Primary target is sp'1420, that is a mere 2% lower, and is not exactly asking much, is it?




It should be a fair week for the bears,

As noted though many times, for the doomers out there, only if we break the previous main cycle low of 1397 can anything major be considered.

For the moment, lets see if we can close today <1450.

I remain short, and seeking a 1420 exit.

*amusing to see the mighty Barrons start touting FB as a $15 stock. Didn't I say that at the IPO? Of course, its really only worth a few dollars.

More across the day.