Friday 4 January 2013

Monthly charts..outright bullish

With the hyper-ramp from sp'1398 to today's high of 1465 in just 3 trading days, the monthly indexes are now nothing less than outright bullish. With the R2K breaking to new historic highs, and the Transports in the 5500s earlier today, it would now be surprising if the sp'500 did not break the Sept' 1474 high.


sp'monthly3



sp'daily7 - fib levels


Summary

The various 'rainbow' charts are all sporting green candles, and a test of the upper bollinger band...this month..or next..somewhere around 1490/1510 seems very viable.

A minor retracement seems likely across the next few days. Fib' levels are suggestive of a pull back somewhere in the 1440/35 area, where the daily 10MA is also lurking.


Due for the trash bin

sp'daily4


Well, I suppose its not officially 'busted' yet, but anything >1474, and it has to get thrown out.

Could it really be another back test, a mere 9pts shy of the first high? I noted just yesterday that the July wave'2 was a mere '9 pts shy' of the wave'1 high..before the 12 day down cycle.

Yet, things are surely different now to then, yes?

The fact the R2K and the transports are already over their September highs, leads me to indeed believe we'll see sp'1474 taken out..in the near term.

So, the only way this chart gets back on track is if we stay below 1474...and then 'quickly' take out the 1398 low.
--


Looking ahead

We have a few pieces of key econ-data tomorrow, including the big monthly jobs number, although I will be more interested in factory orders. At least the latter is not subject to 'seasonal adjustments' and birth/death issues.

Goodnight from London