Friday 22 February 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The US market closed lower for the second consecutive day, although the declines were only moderate. The SP' slipped 0.6% lower, but clawed back higher to hold the big 1500 level. Near term trend looks moderately weak, target zone is 1490/80, with VIX 17s


Dow



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

So, a second day lower...surprising?

Bears have been waiting for some weeks for a multi-day wave lower, and we're finally getting one. How many more days to go?

I would be very surprised if we go much below 1480/75 - where there is VERY strong rising support seen clearly on the daily charts. My best guess is we'll be flooring no later than next Mon/Tuesday.

Considering the POMO, I would guess we'll still see further highs in March/April.

A little more later