Thursday 21 February 2013

Volatility holds some of the gains

With the sp' breaking below the key 1500 level, the VIX briefly spiked into the low 16s. By the close, the VIX had lost half of the gains, but still..the near term daily trend remains upward. The VIX closed +3.7% @ 15.22 If sp' can hit 1490..VIX 17s look 'reasonable' to expect.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

A somewhat disappointing close with over half of the earlier VIX gains evaporating, but the near term trend is still upward.

Today was only day'2 of this up cycle, and its reasonable to expect at least another day or two higher.

VIX 17s look likely - if sp'1490. The only issue is whether we can see 18s, but for that we will probably need sp @ 1480..perhaps even the 1470s - the latter of which is going to be very difficult with key rising support.
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I am long VIX, but would look to exit before the weekend, especially if sp' can hit 1490 tomorrow.
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More later, on the indexes