Wednesday 27 March 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed higher, with the sp' settling at the recent high of 1563. Near term looks moderately bullish, and the sp'1570s look viable, with a brief spike to challenge the Oct'2007 intra-day high of 1576. A moderate decline of 5-7% is expected across April/May


IWM



SP'daily5



Trans



Summary

The daily charts should really concern the bears who were getting moderately excited just yesterday morning.

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is complete - on the downside, and we're now starting to tick higher again.

On any basis, I'd have to guess we tick upward for the next 2-4 days...minimum..and that gets the bulls to next Tues/Wednesday.

It would seem the market will test the Oct'2007 high of sp'1576, where we could see a VERY sharp intra-day reversal. On the flip side, I suppose we could still break into the 1580s, but who is going to be buying at those levels? Right now, I'm guessing we'll see the reversal scenario.

For the patient bears...next week looks to be somewhat promising as a key cyclical top.

a little more later