Friday 29 March 2013

Long weekend ahead

The SP'500 closes around levels not seen since October 2007, mainstream media enthusiasm is reaching new heights. Yet, the charts are warning of mid-term downside. If Q1 earnings come in somewhat 'rough', Mr Market has a significant way to re-price, at least to the sp'1470s


spdaily7 - fib levels



spweekly2, rainbow


Summary

I'm still open to a little further upside across Mon-Wednesday, so those fib levels will probably need to be adjusted. Regardless, I'm pretty content with the overall cycle count, and I think we're in the very last micro-cycle of a fifth wave.

Primary target is the sp'1470s, which happens to be the old resistance highs from last September.


Weekly charts...warning

Its kinda curious that we only closed up 12pts on the week, but it sure feels a lot more. Whether we hit..and exceed the Oct'2007 high of 1576, I don't think is of any real consequence.

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) on the weekly charts IS rolling over, and warning of a new multi-week down cycle beginning within the next week or two.

For the bears...next week will probably be prime time to start picking up index shorts/VIX long,  for looming downside/increased volatility.

Goodnight from London
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next main post, late Friday, probably on the US monthly charts