Tuesday 26 March 2013

Volatility on the slide

With no comments from the EU, the market was in a much more sedate and comfortable mood. The indexes closed higher, with the VIX naturally slipping into the close, settling -7% @ 12.77 It would seem the sp'1570s will be hit, which might equate to VIX back in the mid 11s.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say, there sure doesn't seem any point in picking up VIX call option blocks yet. Indeed, if my index target of the sp'1570s occurs, we're probably looking at a Thursday/weekly close in the VIX 11s.

So..near term lower...but I'd have to believe we'll see VIX 20s by late April/early May.


How high can the VIX go in 2013?

Summer 2012 saw the VIX max out at 27, will the 2013 VIX peak be an even lower peak?

If the Fed keep printing, and if the black swans stay in their nests, then VIX might indeed go no higher than 23/25 this year.

Yet, a very long year is still ahead,.lets see how the VIX trades Wed/Thursday.

more later..on the indexes