Wednesday 6 March 2013

Volatility a touch higher

With the indexes largely trading sideways - after Tuesdays strong gains, the VIX did much the same. With some minor chop in the closing hour, the VIX closed +0.4%  @ 13.53. Near term trend looks weak, the only issue is whether the previous low of 12.08 will be broken.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

Importantly, the daily MACD cycle has now seen a bearish cross, and we're back to a negative cycle.

We could trundle/melt lower for some days, if not a few weeks.

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When the sp' is trading around the 1555/65 level, it will be interesting to see just how low the VIX gets. Right now, a new low <12.08 looks somewhat 'difficult'.

The key VIX 20 threshold looks an awful long way up. Even a Dow -260pt day still failed to get the VIX to what used to be relatively typical volatility level.

more later..on the indexes