Wednesday 24 April 2013

10am update - as far as the bears can tolerate

The market has managed a morning open in the low 1580s, a mere 1% from the April'11 high. Despite the moderately higher open, the VIX is largely flat. Hourly charts are highly suggestive of index weakness, increasing across the day, with a VIX close in the 14s


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

So, Durable Goods Orders data was a real lousy number, but that still hasn't stopped the market breaking to new highs in this cycle.

Bears really can't sustain a daily close in the 1580s in my view, or the 1597 high will be in imminent danger.
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Maybe the best the bears can hope for today is another hacked twitter news account?
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Regardless, I ain't too concerned...yet. Next up..the EIA report at 10.30am.

**at current rate, the hourly charts suggest the indexes will see the first real weakness in about 3-4 trading hours..so..BEFORE the close of today. VIX looks to have the same kind of time frame.

So...lets see if this nonsense gets stuck..and rollsover (significantly) into the close.
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10.10am ...looks like we're done. finally. Now its just a case of waiting.