Wednesday 17 April 2013

10am update - very weak open

The US indexes have opened pretty weak, and we've already taken out the yesterdays low of 1559. VIX is higher, but its already cooling off, +9%. Copper and Oil are very weak, but precious metals are catching a bid, despite a much higher USD.


sp'15min



sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

After the power of yesterdays ramp, I'm somewhat concerned we won't break much lower today.

The count still calls for sp'1540s, but I'm just being overly cautious.

*As it is, I just got stopped out @ 1559, a small gain, after what was...a less than perfect entry.
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I won't be trading any further today. I'll consider a re-short on Friday afternoon/early Monday.


10.18am...sp'1556, looks like we'll take out the 1552 low..and trade in those 1540s..before levelling out.

A small rally into Friday opex is expected..again, getting stuck around the low 1570s.
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10.26am  My concern is this could even be a truncated 5', that falls short. They don't always need to take out the third wave low - 1552.

I just get the sense, this nonsense will trundle somewhat to the upside - 1570s by the Friday close.



15min cycle is VERY low, sure, it could go lower for another hour or two, but we could easily jump back into the 1560s.

I'm glad to be stopped out, and will likely be on the sidelines until late Friday.
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10.50am...a snap...as yesterdays low taken out.

Count looks correct. wave'5 should be done within next hour or so.
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