Tuesday 2 April 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

A choppy and mixed start to the week for the US markets. The Dow managed a flat close, whilst the SP' slipped almost 0.5%, yet the two leading indexes - Trans/R2K, both saw significant falls of 1.5/1.3% respectively. The market is looking increasingly..weak.


IWM



SP



Trans


Summary

First things first....the near term trend remains UP.  Yes, there are a few signs of weakness, and we even saw the R2K break key rising support today. Yet that is just one index, and the others are far from breaking their support.

The fact the Dow managed a flat close should send some real concern to the bears still. The hourly cycles are now pretty low, and there is a very significant chance of another jump higher into the sp'1570s..perhaps even the 1580s on a spike higher.

We have employment data this week, and if the market decides it likes it, then we'll see prices keep on pushing upward.
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As many recognise, the market IS looking vulnerable..but so far...there is simply nothing definitive on the bearish side.

As it is, I remain waiting to launch an index re-short on a spike-high, in the 1575/80 zone, which right now, seems more likely on Wednesday.
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a little more later