Tuesday 9 April 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately higher, once again lead by the Transports and the Rus'2000, both higher by around 0.9%. We are now within 10pts (0.6%) of the recent sp' high, a very important few trading days are ahead. VIX confirmed the utter market complacency.


IWM



SP'daily5


Trans


Summary

We are now very much on the edge again, great huh? Bulls are easily within range of breaking the recent high of 1573. Yet, the hourly index and volatility charts are looking stretched.

If the index (hourly cycle) count is correct, then we won't go more than a few points above today's closing level of 1563.

*indeed, how we trade overnight in the equity futures market will be important, and even more so..how we trade in the opening 30 minutes of Tuesday.


Bears on suicide watch?

In many ways, the bears should now be VERY desperate to get back under the Friday morning low of 1539..and indeed, the even more important low of 1538 from March'19

Until we're back in the low 1530s...I'm admittedly concerned. Yet, the weekly charts are still saying what they were saying a few weeks ago....we're rolling over, and due a multi-week down cycle.

I realise..the bigger picture - even if correct, is little comfort to those on the bearish side this Monday evening.

a little more later