Volatility fails to hold opening gains

The VIX entirely failed to hold the opening gains of 12%, as the bulls battled the indexes back upward across the day. The VIX closed just 0.2% higher @ 13.92. On the week, the VIX gained 9.6%, but remains at a historically..and bizarrely low level.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

So, the VIX failed...as was clearly apparent on the hourly and daily charts - with the opening black candles.

Bears can certainly tout that the VIX was still higher on the week, but 9% of a small number is still a low VIX.  Until the bears get a few daily closes in the 16-18s, it remains a disturbingly complacent market.


Outlook for next week

Despite the weak VIX on Friday, I'd still look for VIX 16/17s on Monday, and there is a moderate chance of hitting the big 20 late next week.

As the weekly chart highlights, the doomer bears - those seeking MUCH lower levels on the indexes, are going to need to see a weekly close above the 200 MA, which is currently still in the 21s.

Right now, those 21s are 50% higher..and that's going to be one hell of a task for the bears, even if the market sees increasing weakness in the days ahead.

more later...on the indexes