Saturday 18 May 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The US indexes closed the week on a high, with most indexes gaining around 1%. The transports and R2K lead the way with gains of 1.26 and 1.11% respectively. Near term trend shows no sign of levelling out, and the R2K looks set to hit 1000 next week. Incredible!


R2K



SP



Trans


Summary

What can be said, other than incredible! Yet, why would we not be hitting new highs? After all, today saw an opex Qe-pomo of 5bn, and Mr Market sure made good use of that latest tranche of Bernanke Bux.

The fed money is keeping a strong bid under the market, and there is absolutely no reason why the Fed will end QE any time soon. I will note briefly - although its a major issue, so long as Oil prices remain 'reasonable' (under $130), the Fed should have no concern about things spiralling out of control.

Indeed, the fed looks more in control of things than ever before. All the Fed needs to do is issue a press release noting that it is 'considering' reducing QE, and you'd see an immediate cool down in just about every asset class.

The default trade obviously remains on the long side, or in the case of those bears who can't stomach going long..to just 'sit it out'. Until the current QE ends, there is simply no point being short the main market.

a little more later