Friday 3 May 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The market opened only marginally up, but it battled consistently higher across the morning, and held significant gains into the close. The SP' and Nasdaq both made new post 2009 highs. The only index that marginally lagged was the Transports, which is still 1% below the Tuesday peak.


IWM



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

What can be said about today?

So, Wednesday closed around 1% lower for the headline indexes, with the Trans/R2K -2%. Yet, today..most of those declines were fully clawed back..and we even had the SP & Nasdaq breaking new highs.

Its hard to know what to say, other than its probably a case of 'normal service resumes'. Fuelled by the regular daily QE-POMO, and aided by those HFT algo-bots. I'm unaware of what the trading volume was today, but I'd guess it was lower than yesterday. After all, the only time there is significant vol' is on a down day.

The transports daily chart is really the only one left that the bears can arguably suggest is still bearish. It has a possible H/S pattern, and the target would be a natural 5500/5400 - equating to sp'1480/70s.

Right now, those downside targets look very difficult to reach, even on a 4-6 week basis.

Unless the bears can see VERY significant downside of at least 2% tomorrow, it now appears the sp'1620s will instread be hit first.

a little more later...