Tuesday 7 May 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

With no news, and very little trading volume, we're back to a market where the HFT algo-bots are in total control. The default result is the usual inexorably slow melt upward. Most indexes closed moderately higher, although the Transports saw rather strong gains of 1.3%.


sp'daily5



Trans


Summary

More than anything, I think the breakout on the Transports remains the most important one for traders to keep in mind. The immediate trend remains to the upside, and there is absolutely no sign of a turn/levelling phase.
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Lets be clear, bears had their chance to break lower last week, and all they could muster was a Wednesday decline of 1% for the headline indexes. The Thursday recovery, and strong gains on Friday are enough to convince me that any hope of downside should be dismissed.

With yet another daily close above the recent sp' high of 1597, those bears still in short positions, should be at least 'concerned', if not already making a run for the exit.

It could be a VERY long summer of market algo-bot melt, and if that's the case, then anyone thinking of shorting the broader market should arguably just turn off their screen and check back in late August.

a little more later...