Tuesday 11 June 2013

10am update - flooring

The main indexes open significantly lower, but we've possibly already floored. The 15/60min cycles are NOT showing a clear turn yet though. Were we to close at these levels, bulls would have a major problem, but I'm expecting a significant latter day recovery.


sp'15min


VIX'60min


Summary

*black candle on the hourly VIX, bears should be spooked by that.
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Okay, so we've hit the target gap-fill zone on most indexes.

Now, this is something of a dicey place for the market. It will surely floor and bounce, but if the bounce isn't very much, then bulls have a serious problem later this week.

All things considered, I think we go up across the rest of the week.
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*I am standing by to launch a major re-long (having bailed at sp'1647 yesterday open).


'Traditional' time for a floor will be THIS 10-11am hour.

Lots of reversal candles out there...Oil, metals


10 07am ...still waiting. It'd be nice to see a test of the floor in the 1626/24 area.

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10.12am.. am HEAVY long from sp'1626

Now..its the waiting game.


1015am... market almost showing a floor on the 15min cycle..



I think the bears are done for today. Bulls merely need to claw back half of the declines by the close, and then up across Wed-Friday.

10.28am...sp'1629/30s.... a floor does now look...in.

The only issue of course is just how big a bounce do we get. Can the indexes go green by early afternoon? The opening drop was barely 1%, so, a move back into the 1640s is very viable within 2-3 hrs.