Monday 10 June 2013

10am update - messy open

The market opens higher, but the gains have quickly failed, with the R2K already moderately red. VIX is a little higher, but it remains a fearless market. Daily trends remain ticking higher, and price momentum is still turning back to the bulls.


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

So...a minor jump at the open, but its failed. Hard to guess how many hours this might fall, but hourly chart is now arguably due to fall.

Near term trend is STILL up, but a fall back to the 1625 area looks viable, no later than early Tuesday.
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*I exited index longs at the open. All I've got left is MRO (long), will look to drop that later this week.
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Oil was indeed weak in pre-market, and it looks like it could fall for most of today, even a few days - although that will be hard if main market broadly rises.

USO'60min


I'll consider going long Oil, but..not today.  33.30s would look a fair target.

 UPDATE 10.13am... a gap fill @ sp'1625 looks increasingly likely.

This open really looked weak (hence me bailing), and a fall - by early Tuesday to 1625 looks very viable now.

No doubt some bears are getting a little excited out there, but I think they'll be really mad as hell by the end of this week.

The time for a major down cycle..just does'nt seem yet.


10.35am.. indexes back to green, and Oil snaps back upward.

A real messy start to the week.

I'm reminded of the phrase 'don't trust a Monday'.